From the details coming out of Ashgabat in Turkmenistan and Moscow over the weekend, it is apparent that the great game over Caspian energy has taken a dramatic turn. In the geopolitics of energy security, nothing like this has happened before. The United States has suffered a huge defeat in the race for Caspian gas. The question now is how much longer Washington could afford to keep Iran out of the energy market.
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There must be deep frustration in Washington. In sum, Russia has greatly strengthened its standing as the principal gas supplier to Europe. It not only controls Central Asia's gas exports but has ensured that gas from the region passes across Russia and not through the alternative trans-Caspian pipelines mooted by the US and EU. Also, a defining moment has come. The era of cheap gas is ending. Other gas exporters will cite the precedent of the price for Turkmen gas. European companies cannot match Gazprom's muscle. Azerbaijan becomes a test case. Equally, Russia places itself in a commanding position to influence the price of gas in the world market. A gas cartel is surely in the making. The geopolitical implications are simply profound for the US.
Tuesday, 29 July 2008
Russia Takes Control Of Turkmen (World?) Gas
The Asia Times has a report on recent developments that will likely impact energy security and prices for the UK and wider world. The whole thing is well worth a read; teaser below:
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5 comments:
'A gas cartel is surely in the making'
It is indeed, a version on OPEC for gas producers is being set up.
At the end of the day they still have to sell the product to the west, hiking the price will allow other fields to become viable, and for other sources of energy to become viable, It is the way of the market.
Viability: Indeed. The US has almost 50 years supply of oil in Dakota that was ignored until recently, for it would have needed "prices as high as $40/barrel to make worthwhile". Today it is a no-brainer.
Regardless, this is even more reason why energy should be considered as part of National Defence - it is not sold on the open market by private companies operating independently and for purely profitable reasons.
"Viability: Indeed. The US has almost 50 years supply of oil in Dakota that was ignored until recently, for it would have needed "prices as high as $40/barrel to make worthwhile". Today it is a no-brainer."
Can you provide a reliable cite for that please? I'm seeing wildly varying estimates
here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=home&sid=ayj1uo_gdNI4
Bloomberg cites USGS as saying that there is approx 413billion barrels x8 larger than Saudi's biggest.
The US consumes (in 2004) 20million per day.
That to me means 20,000 days of oil.
Currently 4.3billion recoverable using today's methods, but heck, that is 1% of the reserves so I am certain they will find a way.
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